Introduction to Impact-based Forecasting (IBF) for Early Action

The training on Introduction to Impact-based Forecasting (IBF) for Early Action was held in collaboration between Intellectuals Center, Nepal, and Khulna University of Engineering & Technology, Bangladesh to increase the conceptual understanding and knowledge of Master students on Impact Based Forecasting approach to the early warning system.

Overview of Impact-based Forecasting

By predicting the impacts of the hazard as well as the event itself, one can act early, in a more precise and concerted way to minimize the potential impacts of a disaster where it occurs.

Impact–based forecasting (IBF) translates meteorological and hydrological information into location–specific impacts; these more targeted and meaningful warnings can trigger anticipatory actions. IBF moves from the traditional way of forecasting “what the weather will be” to a new type of service focused on “what the weather will do”. IBF combines a weather or climate forecast of a hydrometeorological hazard with information about people and places at risk, to anticipate sector- specific and context-specific impacts. IBF breaks the silos of forecasting that exist between hydro- meteorologists and people who can take early action, allowing for the development of more efficient sectoral responses. By focusing on impacts and communicating these, it is expected that the population at risk and the responding professionals will have a better understanding of potential disruptions, which can be used to develop triggers to identify when and where to take appropriate early actions.

Objectives of the training

Introducing the key steps in an Impact Based Forecasting (IBF) approach to early warnings
Apply the concepts of an IBF approach to fictional scenarios, understanding and considering which components and processes could be most readily adopted in Bangladesh

Participants

Master Students (Disaster Management, Civil Engineering, Environment and so on)
Faculties

Training’s outputs

By the end of the training, the students were able to

Explain the rationale for using an Impact Based Forecasting (IBF) approach to warnings
List different steps required for implementing the IBF approach
Define common terminology associated with IBF approaches
Identify hazards related to meteorology and hydrology
Determine vulnerability and exposure to these hazards to assess risk
Understand the components of a risk matrix
Understand how a risk matrix can be used to inform guidance and/or advice

Total time required

5 hrs

DRRM Specialist

Reena Bajracharya

Ms. Bajracharya is a DRRM specialist in Nepal. She has been working in the sector of Disaster Risk Reduction and Management since 2015. She provided technical support to the Government of Nepal in the conceptualization, development, implementation and localization of the BIPAD Portal – a national integrated Disaster Information Management System. She has a multitude of experiences in capacity building, training, and advocacy in data and science, disaster, and technology. She has trained more than 50 municipalities to use data and technology for data-driven decision-making. She is the co-founder of Intellectuals Center, a not-for-profit research and development enterprise that aspires to solve societal challenges by applying knowledge to practice. She is the core team member of the Future Leaders Network on Early Warning and Early Action. She was also nominated for the 2022 WIN DRR Leadership Awards out of 420 nominations by UNDRR at the 2022 Asia-Pacific Ministerial Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction, Brisbane, Australia to celebrate the leadership and recognize the outstanding achievements made in disaster risk reduction across the Asia-Pacific region.